Premier League · 23/24
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Brighton v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Brighton4 – 1
Luton
12 Aug 2023
Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Welbeck | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Solly March | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| James Milner | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| James Milner | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Solly March | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pervis Estupiñán | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pascal Groß | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kaoru Mitoma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 67% | 3 | ✓ |
| Danny Welbeck | fouls drawn | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danny Welbeck | shots on target | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Solly March | fouls drawn | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
Dig deeper
Brighton & Luton player stats→
Brighton players & stats→
Luton players & stats→
Shots on target model→
To be carded model→
Guide: bet builder value→
Past meetings
- Luton 4–0 Brighton Jan 2024
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.