Premier League · 23/24
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Luton v Brighton
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Luton4 – 0
Brighton
30 Jan 2024
Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 10 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | shots total | 1+ | 100% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danny Welbeck | shots total | 1+ | 100% | 3 | ✓ |
| Evan Ferguson | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ross Barkley | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Pascal Groß | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Pedro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Carlos Baleba | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andros Townsend | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Baleba | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Btts | Yes | 60% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 4 cards | ✗ |
Dig deeper
Luton & Brighton player stats→
Luton players & stats→
Brighton players & stats→
Shots on target model→
To be carded model→
Guide: bet builder value→
Past meetings
- Brighton 4–1 Luton Aug 2023
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.