Premier League · 24/25

Brighton v Southampton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Brighton1 – 1 Southampton 29 Nov 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 13 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
João Pedro	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Georginio Rutter	shots total	1+	95%	6	✓
Danny Welbeck	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Cameron Archer	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Adam Armstrong	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Kaoru Mitoma	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Tyler Dibling	fouls drawn	1+	84%	6	✓
João Pedro	fouls drawn	1+	84%	4	✓
Matt O'Riley	shots total	1+	79%	2	✓
Yasin Ayari	fouls drawn	1+	78%	2	✓
Georginio Rutter	fouls drawn	1+	78%	4	✓
Georginio Rutter	fouls committed	1+	78%	1	✓
Pervis Estupiñán	fouls committed	1+	76%	0	✗
Yasin Ayari	shots total	1+	74%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	60%	2 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	58%	6 cards	✓
Btts	Yes	53%	Yes	✓

Dig deeper

Brighton & Southampton player stats→ Brighton players & stats→ Southampton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works