Premier League · 25/26

Burnley v Leeds

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Burnley2 – 0 Leeds 18 Oct 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 8 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	shots total	1+	100%	4	✓
Lukas Nmecha	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Jacob Bruun Larsen	shots total	1+	89%	1	✓
Anton Stach	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Brenden Aaronson	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Daniel James	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Loum Tchaouna	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Brenden Aaronson	fouls drawn	1+	85%	0	✗
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Sean Longstaff	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Josh Cullen	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Lesley Ugochukwu	fouls committed	1+	76%	0	✗
Jack Harrison	shots total	1+	74%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	43%	No	✗
Match goals	O2.5	39%	2 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	29%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Burnley & Leeds player stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Leeds players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Leeds 3–1 Burnley May 2026

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works