Premier League · 25/26

Leeds v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Leeds3 – 1 Burnley 1 May 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Lukas Nmecha	shots total	1+	100%	1	✓
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Noah Okafor	shots total	1+	95%	2	✓
Zian Flemming	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Jaidon Anthony	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Anton Stach	shots total	1+	88%	5	✓
Hannibal Mejbri	fouls drawn	1+	86%	3	✓
Zian Flemming	fouls committed	1+	83%	1	✓
Loum Tchaouna	shots total	1+	80%	1	✓
Florentino Luís	fouls committed	1+	80%	0	✗
Ao Tanaka	shots total	1+	78%	2	✓
Zian Flemming	fouls drawn	1+	73%	0	✗
Josh Laurent	fouls committed	1+	73%	1	✓
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	fouls drawn	1+	73%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	54%	4 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	50%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	19%	7 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Leeds & Burnley player stats→ Leeds players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Burnley 2–0 Leeds Oct 2025

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works