Premier League · 23/24

Burnley v Luton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Burnley1 – 1 Luton 12 Jan 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 8 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Zeki Amdouni	shots total	1+	95%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	93%	4	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	88%	4	✓
Wilson Odobert	shots total	1+	88%	3	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	85%	0	✗
Josh Cullen	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Tahith Chong	shots total	1+	79%	0	✗
Jóhann Guðmundsson	shots total	1+	78%	2	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗
Albert Sambi Lokonga	fouls drawn	1+	77%	2	✓
Josh Brownhill	shots total	1+	77%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	49%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	43%	2 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	29%	1 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Burnley & Luton player stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Luton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Luton 1–2 Burnley Oct 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works