Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Burnley

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton1 – 2 Burnley 3 Oct 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 13 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Jacob Brown	shots total	1+	96%	3	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	96%	4	✓
Zeki Amdouni	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Elijah Adebayo	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Lyle Foster	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu	shots total	1+	84%	2	✓
Luca Koleosho	shots total	1+	80%	3	✓
Alfie Doughty	shots total	1+	80%	1	✓
Tahith Chong	shots total	1+	79%	1	✓
Josh Brownhill	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗
Chiedozie Ogbene	fouls drawn	1+	78%	2	✓
Zeki Amdouni	fouls drawn	1+	78%	4	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	50%	3 goals	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	6 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Luton & Burnley player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Burnley players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Burnley 1–1 Luton Jan 2024

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works