Burnley v Sheffield United
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Burnley beat Sheffield United 5–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Jay Rodriguez for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Oli McBurnie for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeki Amdouni | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jay Rodriguez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| William Osula | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oliver Norwood | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Auston Trusty | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luca Koleosho | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cameron Archer | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Hamer | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| James McAtee | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bénie Traoré | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jóhann Guðmundsson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anel Ahmedhodžić | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 9 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Burnley 2–1 Sheffield United Apr 2025
- Sheffield United 0–2 Burnley Dec 2024
- Sheffield United 1–4 Burnley Apr 2024
- Burnley 2–0 Sheffield United Apr 2023
- Sheffield United 5–2 Burnley Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Burnley v Sheffield United?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Burnley v Sheffield United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Oli McBurnie at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.