Premier League · 23/24

Liverpool v Luton

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Liverpool4 – 1 Luton 21 Feb 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Luis Díaz	shots total	1+	100%	10	✓
Cody Gakpo	shots total	1+	100%	8	✓
Harvey Elliott	shots total	1+	96%	5	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Cauley Woodrow	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Alexis Mac Allister	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
Cody Gakpo	fouls drawn	1+	85%	4	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓
Wataru Endo	fouls drawn	1+	84%	0	✗
Chiedozie Ogbene	fouls drawn	1+	84%	3	✓
Alexis Mac Allister	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Wataru Endo	fouls committed	1+	81%	1	✓
Ryan Gravenberch	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	79%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	77%	5 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	54%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	5 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Liverpool & Luton player stats→ Liverpool players & stats→ Luton players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Luton 1–1 Liverpool Nov 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works