Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Liverpool

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton1 – 1 Liverpool 5 Nov 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Mohamed Salah	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Diogo Jota	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Darwin Núñez	shots total	1+	100%	9	✓
Cody Gakpo	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Harvey Elliott	shots total	1+	96%	1	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Dominik Szoboszlai	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Cody Gakpo	fouls drawn	1+	86%	0	✗
Alexis Mac Allister	fouls drawn	1+	84%	1	✓
Ryan Gravenberch	shots total	1+	83%	1	✓
Alexis Mac Allister	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Trent Alexander-Arnold	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓
Darwin Núñez	shots on target	1+	80%	3	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	78%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	69%	2 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	60%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	2 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Luton & Liverpool player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Liverpool players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Liverpool 4–1 Luton Feb 2024

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works