Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Aston Villa

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton2 – 3 Aston Villa 2 Mar 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Ollie Watkins	shots total	1+	100%	5	✓
Morgan Rogers	shots total	1+	100%	1	✓
Leon Bailey	shots total	1+	96%	1	✓
Douglas Luiz	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	88%	3	✓
Jacob Ramsey	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
John McGinn	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
John McGinn	fouls drawn	1+	85%	0	✗
Chiedozie Ogbene	fouls drawn	1+	84%	5	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	84%	5	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	83%	0	✗
Issa Kaboré	fouls committed	1+	81%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	65%	5 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	60%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	29%	5 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Luton & Aston Villa player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Aston Villa players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Aston Villa 3–1 Luton Oct 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works