Luton v Aston Villa
How often each Luton and Aston Villa player has hit the lines bookmakers price — 1+ shots on target, 2+ shots, 1+ fouls, a card — across their recent matches. How hit rates work ↓
Going into Luton v Aston Villa: Carlton Morris (Luton) leads the home side for 1+ shots on target — 6 of 10 (60%); Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) tops the visitors on 9 of 10 (90%). Raw hit rates from recent matches, not odds.
How hit rates and windows work
Each row's hit rate is the share of a player's games in the window where the bet would have landed. These are 26/27 figures from completed matches: Last N is their last N games; Season is their whole 26/27; H2H is only games against this opponent.
🔒 Model is the paid layer — the model's +EV verdict on each line, per fixture in the tool. The hit rates here are free.
Tick players above to build your own slip — it follows you across games, and you can share it from the tray below.
New to these markets? The player stats guide explains what each line means and how to read a hit rate, and the glossary defines the terms.
Form is only half the picture. A player hitting a line 5 of 5 can still be poor value if the true chance is lower than the streak suggests. The SharpXI tool pairs every one of these with the model's real probability — and flags the runs it doesn't back, so you're not chasing a streak about to regress. That honest verdict is the layer we're building into the tool.
Hit rates are raw recent form from public match data, for context — not a prediction or a guarantee. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.
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