What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Premier League winger, 25/26, 1,770 appearances
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Over the last 10 Premier League games, Leon Bailey has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10), 1+ total shot in 40%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 50%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable wingers
The closest 5 profiles to Leon Bailey in Premier League, 25/26 — drawn from 60 wingers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon BaileyAston Villa | 13 | 1.55 | 1.16 |
| Dan NdoyeNottingham Forest | 24 | 1.15 | 1.22 |
| Mathys TelTottenham Hotspur | 31 | 2.32 | 1.26 |
| Omari HutchinsonAC Milan | 31 | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Adama TraoréDeportivo de A Coruña | 24 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Brajan GrudaBrighton & Hove Albion | 18 | 1.95 | 1.34 |
| These 5, combined | 1.63 | 1.26 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Leon Bailey featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Man City24 May | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| @ Burnley10 May | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tottenham3 May | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Fulham25 Apr | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Ham22 Mar | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Man Utd15 Mar | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chelsea4 Mar | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Wolves27 Feb | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leeds21 Feb | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brighton11 Feb | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 12 current Premier League officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Premier League referees
Frequently asked
How often does Leon Bailey have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Premier League games, Leon Bailey has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Leon Bailey average?
Across the last 10 Premier League games, Leon Bailey is averaging 0.25 shots on target and 1.23 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Leon Bailey get booked?
Leon Bailey is averaging 0.25 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Leon Bailey commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Leon Bailey commits 1.23 fouls per 90 and wins 1.23 — an even split. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Leon Bailey?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Leon Bailey plays as a midfielder.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.