Ollie Watkins
Striker 100% of 30 recent starts Aston VillaPremier League 25/26
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Premier League striker, 25/26, 1,416 appearances
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Picked from 41 selections across 14 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 Premier League games, Ollie Watkins has hit 1+ shot on target in 70% (7 of 10), 1+ total shot in 90%, 1+ foul committed in 80%, 1+ foul won in 70%, and been booked in 30% (3 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Ollie Watkins in Premier League, 25/26 — drawn from 43 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie WatkinsAston Villa | 37 | 2.62 | 1.10 |
| Jean-Philippe MatetaCrystal Palace | 32 | 2.55 | 0.85 |
| EvanilsonBournemouth | 36 | 2.28 | 0.85 |
| Danny WelbeckChelsea | 37 | 2.22 | 1.19 |
| Viktor GyökeresArsenal | 36 | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| Hugo EkitikéLiverpool FC | 28 | 3.23 | 1.74 |
| These 5, combined | 2.46 | 1.17 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Ollie Watkins featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Man City24 May | 90 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Liverpool15 May | 90 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| @ Burnley10 May | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tottenham3 May | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Fulham25 Apr | 80 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sunderland19 Apr | 80 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Nottingham Forest12 Apr | 87 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| West Ham22 Mar | 87 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Man Utd15 Mar | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chelsea4 Mar | 71 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 15 current Premier League officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Premier League referees
Frequently asked
How often does Ollie Watkins have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Premier League games, Ollie Watkins has hit 1+ shot on target in 70% (7 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Ollie Watkins average?
Across the last 10 Premier League games, Ollie Watkins is averaging 1.76 shots on target and 3.29 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Ollie Watkins get booked?
Ollie Watkins is averaging 0.35 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Ollie Watkins commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Ollie Watkins commits 1.18 fouls per 90 and wins 1.06 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Ollie Watkins?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Ollie Watkins plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.