Nottingham Forest v West Ham
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nottingham Forest lost to West Ham 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Jarrod Bowen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Tomáš Souček for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Bowen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dan Ndoye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Paquetá | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Neco Williams | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dan Ndoye | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Souček | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Chris Wood | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| James McAtee | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Niclas Füllkrug | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Callum Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Niclas Füllkrug | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest Jan 2026
- West Ham 1–2 Nottingham Forest May 2025
- Nottingham Forest 3–0 West Ham Nov 2024
- Nottingham Forest 2–0 West Ham Feb 2024
- West Ham 3–2 Nottingham Forest Nov 2023
- West Ham 4–0 Nottingham Forest Feb 2023
- Nottingham Forest 1–0 West Ham Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nottingham Forest v West Ham?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nottingham Forest v West Ham?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tomáš Souček at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.