Sheffield United v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield United lost to Aston Villa 0–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ollie Watkins for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Auston Trusty for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Leon Bailey | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Moussa Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 7 | ✓ |
| Jayden Bogle | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Auston Trusty | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anel Ahmedhodžić | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Douglas Luiz | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| William Osula | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| John McGinn | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Boubacar Kamara | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mason Holgate | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matty Cash | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 1 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 1–1 Sheffield United Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield United v Aston Villa?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield United v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Auston Trusty at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.