Premier League · 24/25

Southampton v Crystal Palace

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Southampton1 – 1 Crystal Palace 2 Apr 2025

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Eberechi Eze	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Eddie Nketiah	shots total	1+	100%	2	✓
Jean-Philippe Mateta	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Ismaïla Sarr	shots total	1+	90%	0	✗
Paul Onuachu	shots total	1+	88%	4	✓
Eddie Nketiah	fouls committed	1+	86%	1	✓
Eddie Nketiah	fouls drawn	1+	86%	1	✓
Eberechi Eze	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓
Flynn Downes	fouls committed	1+	84%	3	✓
Paul Onuachu	fouls committed	1+	83%	2	✓
Daichi Kamada	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Jefferson Lerma	shots total	1+	78%	0	✗
Ismaïla Sarr	fouls drawn	1+	78%	1	✓
Jefferson Lerma	fouls drawn	1+	78%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	54%	2 goals	✗
Btts	Yes	52%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Southampton & Crystal Palace player stats→ Southampton players & stats→ Crystal Palace players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works