Southampton v Ipswich
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Southampton drew with Ipswich 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ross Stewart for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jack Clarke for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Stewart | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Archer | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sammie Szmodics | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jens-Lys Cajuste | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Morsy | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ross Stewart | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Omari Hutchinson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Delap | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Lallana | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tyler Dibling | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 2–2 Ipswich Apr 2026
- Ipswich 1–1 Southampton Aug 2025
- Ipswich 1–2 Southampton Feb 2025
- Ipswich 3–2 Southampton Apr 2024
- Southampton 0–1 Ipswich Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Southampton v Ipswich?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Southampton v Ipswich?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jack Clarke at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.