Tottenham v Newcastle
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Tottenham lost to Newcastle 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Omar Marmoush for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Nico González for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Marmoush | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yoane Wissa | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pedro Porro | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico González | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateus Fernandes | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lewis Hall | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Destiny Udogie | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anthony Elanga | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Harvey Barnes | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathys Tel | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Omar Marmoush | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Miley | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Amar Dedić | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Feb 2026
- Newcastle 2–2 Tottenham Dec 2025
- Newcastle 2–0 Tottenham Oct 2025
- Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle Jan 2025
- Newcastle 2–1 Tottenham Sep 2024
- Newcastle 4–0 Tottenham Apr 2024
- Tottenham 4–1 Newcastle Dec 2023
- Newcastle 6–1 Tottenham Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Tottenham v Newcastle?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Tottenham v Newcastle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nico González at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.