Wolves v Leeds
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Wolves lost to Leeds 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Dominic Calvert-Lewin for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Fer López for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fer López | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Gomes | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Hugo Bueno | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sean Longstaff | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 6 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Gomes | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tolu Arokodare | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Noah Okafor | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anton Stach | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Gomes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leeds 3–0 Wolves Apr 2026
- Wolves 2–4 Leeds Mar 2023
- Wolves 1–0 Leeds Nov 2022
- Leeds 2–1 Wolves Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Wolves v Leeds?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Wolves v Leeds?
The most confident call it got wrong was Fer López at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.