Primeira Liga 25/26

Benfica v Casa Pia

How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Benfica2 – 2 Casa Pia 9 Nov 2025

11~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Benfica drew with Casa Pia 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Dodi Lukebakio for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Dailon Rocha Livramento for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials+15% cards vs the league average

Gustavo Correia refereed this match 5.97cards a gameleague 5.17 63games

Gustavo Correia's card record

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Vangelis Pavlidis	shots total	1+	98%	2	✓
Dodi Lukebakio	shots total	1+	98%	3	✓
Gianluca Prestianni	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Richard Ríos	shots total	1+	86%	5	✓
Dailon Rocha Livramento	shots total	1+	82%	0	✗
Georgiy Sudakov	shots total	1+	78%	3	✓
Vangelis Pavlidis	shots on target	1+	76%	1	✓
Dodi Lukebakio	shots on target	1+	69%	2	✓
Jérémy Livolant	shots total	1+	63%	2	✓
Kelian Nsona	shots total	1+	63%	0	✗
Fredrik Aursnes	shots total	1+	58%	0	✗
Cassiano	shots total	1+	58%	1	✓
Gaizka Larrazabal	shots total	1+	54%	1	✓
Enzo Barrenechea	shots total	1+	51%	1	✓

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

Benfica & Casa Pia player stats→ Benfica players & stats→ Casa Pia players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Benfica v Casa Pia?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Benfica v Casa Pia?

The most confident call it got wrong was Dailon Rocha Livramento at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works