CD Nacional v Casa Pia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before CD Nacional drew with Casa Pia 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Jesús Ramírez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Tiago Morais for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Ramírez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Veron | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Paulinho Bóia | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tiago Morais | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesús Ramírez | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| João Marques | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cassiano | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 5 | ✓ |
| Miguel Baeza | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ze Vitor | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Liziero | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Veron | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Morais | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Casa Pia 0–2 CD Nacional Aug 2025
- CD Nacional 3–1 Casa Pia Mar 2025
- Casa Pia 1–0 CD Nacional Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on CD Nacional v Casa Pia?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on CD Nacional v Casa Pia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tiago Morais at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.