Primeira Liga 25/26

Estoril Praia v Benfica

How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.

Estoril Praia1 – 3 Benfica 16 May 2026

11~~/14~~

of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Estoril Praia lost to Benfica 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Dodi Lukebakio for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Vangelis Pavlidis for 1+ shots on target (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials-14% cards vs the league average

Miguel Nogueira refereed this match 4.47cards a gameleague 5.17 64games

Miguel Nogueira's card record

What is still at stake

Estoril Praia 10th39 pts1 to play Nothing left to play for

Benfica 3rd77 pts1 to play

A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Andreas Schjelderup	shots total	1+	98%	2	✓
Vangelis Pavlidis	shots total	1+	98%	1	✓
Dodi Lukebakio	shots total	1+	98%	3	✓
Gianluca Prestianni	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Rafa Silva	shots total	1+	96%	2	✓
Richard Ríos	shots total	1+	82%	4	✓
André Lacximicant	shots total	1+	82%	3	✓
Yanis Begraoui	shots total	1+	79%	2	✓
Peixinho	shots total	1+	78%	4	✓
Vangelis Pavlidis	shots on target	1+	76%	0	✗
Rafa Silva	shots on target	1+	69%	2	✓
Dodi Lukebakio	shots on target	1+	69%	1	✓
Fredrik Aursnes	shots total	1+	63%	0	✗
Andreas Schjelderup	shots on target	1+	62%	0	✗

How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target

Dig deeper

Estoril Praia & Benfica player stats→ Estoril Praia players & stats→ Benfica players & stats→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Estoril Praia v Benfica?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Estoril Praia v Benfica?

The most confident call it got wrong was Vangelis Pavlidis at 76% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works