Santa Clara v CD Nacional
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Santa Clara drew with CD Nacional 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Vinícius Lopes for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Welinton Torrao for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Lopes | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Paciência | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 7 | ✓ |
| Pablo Messias Cardozo | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Welinton Torrao | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Daniel Borges | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Ribeiro | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| José Tavares | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Baeza | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Lopes | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Paciência | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pablo Messias Cardozo | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ze Vitor | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Liziero | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Santa Clara 2–0 CD Nacional May 2026
- CD Nacional 3–3 Santa Clara Jan 2026
- Santa Clara 1–0 CD Nacional Mar 2025
- CD Nacional 2–0 Santa Clara Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Santa Clara v CD Nacional?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Santa Clara v CD Nacional?
The most confident call it got wrong was Welinton Torrao at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.