Alan Varela
Midfielder FC PortoPrimeira Liga 26/27
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Primeira Liga midfielder, 25/26, 2,874 appearances
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Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Alan Varela has hit 1+ shot on target in 20% (2 of 10), 1+ total shot in 40%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 50%, and been booked in 20% (2 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable central midfielders
The closest 5 profiles to Alan Varela in Primeira Liga, 25/26 — drawn from 19 central midfielders with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan VarelaFC Porto | 30 | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| Jean-Baptiste GorbySporting Braga | 28 | 0.68 | 0.94 |
| Vítor CarvalhoSporting Braga | 15 | 0.93 | 1.43 |
| Pablo RosarioFC Porto | 22 | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| João MoutinhoSporting Braga | 31 | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| Fredrik AursnesBenfica | 28 | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| These 5, combined | 0.91 | 1.21 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Alan Varela featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Marítimo10 Oct | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| @ Casa Pia12 Sep | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Académico Viseu FC29 Aug | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Alverca9 Aug | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Santa Clara16 May | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ AVS - Futebol SAD10 May | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Alverca2 May | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tondela19 Apr | 90 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Estoril Praia12 Apr | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Famalicão4 Apr | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 10 current Primeira Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Primeira Liga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Alan Varela have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Alan Varela has hit 1+ shot on target in 20% (2 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Alan Varela average?
Across the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Alan Varela is averaging 0.45 shots on target and 0.89 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Alan Varela get booked?
Alan Varela is averaging 0.30 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Alan Varela commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Alan Varela commits 0.89 fouls per 90 and wins 1.04 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Alan Varela?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Alan Varela plays as a midfielder.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.