Livingston v Falkirk FC
How the SharpXI model rated this Scottish Premiership fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Livingston lost to Falkirk FC 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Calvin Miller for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Lewis Smith for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Miller | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Louie Marsh | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Barney Stewart | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robbie Muirhead | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Connor McLennan | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kyrell Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lewis Smith | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Ross | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Scott Arfield | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stevie May | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Tait | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Finn Yeats | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robbie Muirhead | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 1 | ✓ |
| Barney Stewart | shots on target | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Falkirk FC 1–1 Livingston Nov 2025
- Livingston 3–1 Falkirk FC Aug 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Livingston v Falkirk FC?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Livingston v Falkirk FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lewis Smith at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Scottish Premiership?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.