Hellas Verona v Genoa
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hellas Verona lost to Genoa 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Roberto Gagliardini for 1+ tackles (97%, had 3). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Roberto Gagliardini | tackles | 1+ | 97% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Colombo | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Caleb Ekuban | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gift Orban | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Caleb Ekuban | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Messias | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tomáš Suslov | fouls drawn | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kieron Bowie | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Frendrup | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 44% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 37% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Genoa 2–1 Hellas Verona Nov 2025
- Hellas Verona 0–0 Genoa Apr 2025
- Genoa 0–2 Hellas Verona Sep 2024
- Hellas Verona 1–2 Genoa Apr 2024
- Genoa 1–0 Hellas Verona Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hellas Verona v Genoa?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hellas Verona v Genoa?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.