Hellas Verona v Parma
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hellas Verona lost to Parma 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Patrick Cutrone for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Amin Sarr for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Mosquera | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gift Orban | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Giovane | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Patrick Cutrone | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Martin Frese | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adrián Bernabé | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Daniel Mosquera | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 5 | ✓ |
| Adrián Bernabé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Amin Sarr | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateo Pellegrino | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Parma 2–1 Hellas Verona Feb 2026
- Hellas Verona 0–0 Parma Mar 2025
- Parma 2–3 Hellas Verona Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hellas Verona v Parma?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hellas Verona v Parma?
The most confident call it got wrong was Amin Sarr at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.