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Bundesliga 25/26
DE

Denis Vavro

Centre-back 97% of 30 recent starts VfL WolfsburgBundesliga 25/26

Last games
max 48 on record
What a window counts

Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.

All markets last 10 games

Compared with a Bundesliga centre-back, 25/26, 1,091 appearances

Bet line
MarketHit rateModel
Shots on target0.30 per 90
30%
3 of 102.1×
Total shots1.00 per 90
50%
5 of 101.4×
Fouls won0.20 per 90
20%
2 of 100.5×
Fouls committed0.60 per 90
60%
6 of 101.2×
Tackles0.70 per 90
50%
5 of 100.8×
30%
3 of 1015.0×
Cards0.10 per 90
10%
1 of 100.7×
Goals0.00 per 90
0%
0 of 10
form only
Assists0.00 per 90
0%
0 of 10
form only
Hit rate, per-90 and the market price are free. Switch the bet line above — each carries its own price where the bookmaker offers one. What’s paid is the model’s edge: whether that price is wrong. Rare tails the model can’t beat, like 3+ on target, stay hit-rate-only.

Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox

Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.

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In 25/26, Denis Vavro has hit 1+ shot on target in 21% of 19 Bundesliga appearances (4 of 19), 1+ total shot in 37%, 1+ foul committed in 53%, 1+ foul won in 26%, and been booked in 11% (2 of 19). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.

last 10

Comparable centre-backs

The closest 5 profiles to Denis Vavro in Bundesliga, 25/26 — drawn from 46 centre-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.

PlayerAppsShots/90Fouls/90
Denis VavroVfL Wolfsburg 190.83 0.64
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey1. FC Köln 110.62 0.42
Matthias GinterSC Freiburg 320.60 0.51
Hiroki ItōFC Bayern München 160.97 0.97
Philipp LienhartSC Freiburg 200.55 0.48
Kim Min-jaeFC Bayern München 250.28 0.50
These 5, combined 0.57 0.55

Recent matches

The last 10 games Denis Vavro featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.

MatchMinSoTShots FoulsWonTckCards
@ SC Paderborn 0725 May 105 0 0 0 0 1 0
SC Paderborn 0721 May 90 0 1 1 1 3 0
@ FC St. Pauli16 May 90 0 0 0 0 1 0
FC Bayern München9 May 90 1 2 1 0 1 0
@ SC Freiburg3 May 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Borussia M'gladbach25 Apr 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
@ 1. FC Union Berlin18 Apr 90 0 0 1 1 0 0
Eintracht Frankfurt11 Apr 79 1 2 1 0 0 0
@ Bayer 04 Leverkusen4 Apr 90 0 2 1 0 1 1
FC Augsburg21 Feb 89 1 3 1 0 0 0
Officials on record
Martin Petersen 4 games Denis Vavro booked in 1 4.60cards/game 1.13×vs league
Matthias Jollenbeck 4 games Denis Vavro booked in 1 4.04cards/game 0.99×vs league
Sascha Stegemann 4 games Denis Vavro booked in 1 3.95cards/game 0.97×vs league
Timo Gerach 4 games Denis Vavro never booked 4.10cards/game 1.01×vs league

Raw counts from every match on record, across 5 current Bundesliga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Bundesliga referees

Frequently asked

How often does Denis Vavro have a shot on target?

In 25/26, Denis Vavro has hit 1+ shot on target in 21% of 19 Bundesliga appearances (4 of 19). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.

How many shots on target does Denis Vavro average?

Across 19 Bundesliga appearances in 25/26, Denis Vavro is averaging 0.32 shots on target and 0.83 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.

How often does Denis Vavro get booked?

Denis Vavro is averaging 0.13 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.

Does Denis Vavro commit or win more fouls?

This season Denis Vavro commits 0.64 fouls per 90 and wins 0.38 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.

Which player markets does SharpXI model for Denis Vavro?

Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Denis Vavro plays as a defender.

Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.