Updated daily through the season. Spot something off? Tell usUpdated daily. Tell us
SharpXI©
Bundesliga 25/26
PI

Piero Hincapié

Wide centre-back 80% of 30 recent starts ArsenalBundesliga 25/26

Also in: Premier League

Next match
Arsenal at 1. FSV Mainz 05›
Sat 10 OctReferee Max Burda

Shot map Foul map

Last games
max 50 on record
What a window counts

Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.

All markets last 10 games

Compared with a Bundesliga wide centre-back, 25/26, 757 appearances

Bet line
MarketHit rateModel
Shots on target0.33 per 90
30%
3 of 102.0×
Total shots1.09 per 90
70%
7 of 101.9×
Fouls won1.64 per 90
70%
7 of 101.6×
Fouls committed0.66 per 90
30%
3 of 100.5×
Tackles1.64 per 90
60%
6 of 100.9×
0%
0 of 10
Cards0.33 per 90
30%
3 of 101.4×
Goals0.11 per 90
10%
1 of 101.8×
form only
Assists0.11 per 90
10%
1 of 103.0×
form only
No bookmaker prices for this fixture yet. Player markets are usually priced closer to kickoff, and not every fixture carries every market. The hit rates and match-up above are complete either way.
Hit rate, per-90 and the market price are free. Switch the bet line above — each carries its own price where the bookmaker offers one. What’s paid is the model’s edge: whether that price is wrong. Rare tails the model can’t beat, like 3+ on target, stay hit-rate-only.

Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox

Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.

Confirmed by a link. Unsubscribe in one click. Or open the player report.

Over the last 10 Bundesliga games, Piero Hincapié has hit 1+ shot on target in 30% (3 of 10), 1+ total shot in 70%, 1+ foul committed in 30%, 1+ foul won in 70%, and been booked in 30% (3 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.

last 10

Comparable full-backs

The closest 5 profiles to Piero Hincapié in Bundesliga, 25/26 — drawn from 33 full-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.

PlayerAppsShots/90Fouls/90
Piero HincapiéArsenal 12.00 2.00
Tom BischofFC Bayern München 262.05 1.02
Yukinari SugawaraCagliari 311.11 0.81
Josha VagnomanVfB Stuttgart 271.07 0.96
David RaumRB Leipzig 300.85 1.02
Raphaël GuerreiroFC Bayern München 181.34 0.34
These 5, combined 1.19 0.89

No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.

Recent matches

The last 10 games Piero Hincapié featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.

MatchMinSoTShots FoulsWonTckCards
TSG Hoffenheim23 Aug 90 1 2 2 0 0 0
@ 1. FSV Mainz 0517 May 90 0 0 1 2 1 1
Borussia Dortmund11 May 78 0 1 0 1 4 0
@ SC Freiburg4 May 90 0 1 0 0 3 0
FC Augsburg26 Apr 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
@ FC St. Pauli20 Apr 90 1 1 0 2 0 1
1. FC Union Berlin12 Apr 90 0 1 0 1 3 0
@ 1. FC Heidenheim5 Apr 90 0 1 0 6 3 0
VfL Bochum 184828 Mar 90 0 0 0 2 0 0
@ VfB Stuttgart16 Mar 90 1 3 3 1 1 1
Officials on record
Daniel Siebert 9 games Piero Hincapié booked in 3 4.18cards/game 1.03×vs league
Tobias Stieler 8 games Piero Hincapié booked in 1 3.42cards/game 0.84×vs league
Christian Dingert 6 games Piero Hincapié booked in 1 4.29cards/game 1.05×vs league
Felix Zwayer 6 games Piero Hincapié booked in 1 4.35cards/game 1.07×vs league

Raw counts from every match on record, across 16 current Bundesliga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Bundesliga referees

Frequently asked

How often does Piero Hincapié have a shot on target?

Over the last 10 Bundesliga games, Piero Hincapié has hit 1+ shot on target in 30% (3 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.

How many shots on target does Piero Hincapié average?

Across the last 10 Bundesliga games, Piero Hincapié is averaging 0.33 shots on target and 1.09 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.

How often does Piero Hincapié get booked?

Piero Hincapié is averaging 0.33 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.

Does Piero Hincapié commit or win more fouls?

Over the last 10 games Piero Hincapié commits 0.66 fouls per 90 and wins 1.64 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.

Which player markets does SharpXI model for Piero Hincapié?

Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Piero Hincapié plays as a defender.

Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.