Birmingham City v Middlesbrough
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Birmingham City drew with Middlesbrough 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aidan Morris for 1+ tackles (95%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Bright Osayi-Samuel for 1+ tackles (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Morris | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 6 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bright Osayi-Samuel | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Riley McGree | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amario Cozier-Duberry | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tommy Conway | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aidan Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tommy Conway | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Myles Peart-Harris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Brittain | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Vicente | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Vázquez | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 16% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 1–3 Middlesbrough Mar 2026
- Middlesbrough 2–1 Birmingham City Nov 2025
- Birmingham City 0–1 Middlesbrough Mar 2024
- Middlesbrough 1–0 Birmingham City Oct 2023
- Birmingham City 1–3 Middlesbrough Jan 2023
- Middlesbrough 1–0 Birmingham City Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Birmingham City v Middlesbrough?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Birmingham City v Middlesbrough?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bright Osayi-Samuel at 91% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.