Blackburn Rovers v Middlesbrough
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Blackburn Rovers beat Middlesbrough 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Morgan Whittaker for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Yuki Ohashi for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Whittaker | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Aidan Morris | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adam Forshaw | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Riley McGree | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yuki Ohashi | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kristi Montgomery | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Myles Peart-Harris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aidan Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oladapo Afolayan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Morsy | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luke Ayling | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Todd Cantwell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Yuki Ohashi | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Blackburn Rovers 0–0 Middlesbrough Mar 2026
- Middlesbrough 0–0 Blackburn Rovers Dec 2025
- Blackburn Rovers 0–2 Middlesbrough Apr 2025
- Middlesbrough 0–1 Blackburn Rovers Nov 2024
- Middlesbrough 0–0 Blackburn Rovers Mar 2024
- Blackburn Rovers 2–1 Middlesbrough Sep 2023
- Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Middlesbrough Dec 2022
- Middlesbrough 1–2 Blackburn Rovers Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Blackburn Rovers v Middlesbrough?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Blackburn Rovers v Middlesbrough?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yuki Ohashi at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.