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Championship · 25/26

Bristol City v Ipswich

How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Bristol City1 – 1 Ipswich 30 Sep 2025
11/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Bristol City drew with Ipswich 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Chuba Akpom for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Scott Twine for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
John Busby refereed this match 3.82cards/game 0.95×vs league 97games
John Busby's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Chuba Akpom fouls drawn 1+ 83% 3
Scott Twine fouls drawn 1+ 83% 0
Marcelino Núñez shots total 1+ 80% 2
Kasey McAteer fouls committed 1+ 80% 1
Scott Twine shots total 1+ 78% 1
Sinclair Armstrong fouls committed 1+ 78% 0
Sinclair Armstrong fouls drawn 1+ 77% 0
Ivan Azón shots total 1+ 77% 1
Anis Mehmeti shots total 1+ 77% 1
Ross McCrorie fouls committed 1+ 76% 3
Yu Hirakawa fouls drawn 1+ 76% 1
Marcelino Núñez fouls committed 1+ 75% 2
Chuba Akpom shots total 1+ 74% 1
Emil Riis Jacobsen shots total 1+ 74% 2

How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
BTTS Yes 56% Yes
Match goals O2.5 53% 2 goals
Match cards O4.5 15% 6 cards

How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards

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Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Ipswich?

11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Ipswich?

The most confident call it got wrong was Scott Twine at 83% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.