Bristol City v Leeds
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bristol City drew with Leeds 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being George Tanner for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Wilfried Gnonto for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Tanner | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sam Byram | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Daniel James | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateo Joseph | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ross McCrorie | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luke McNally | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Max Bird | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jayden Bogle | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| George Earthy | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcus McGuane | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leeds 4–0 Bristol City Apr 2025
- Bristol City 0–1 Leeds Feb 2024
- Leeds 2–1 Bristol City Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Leeds?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Leeds?
The most confident call it got wrong was Wilfried Gnonto at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.