Bristol City v Lincoln City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bristol City lost to Lincoln City 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Lorent Tolaj for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Scott Twine for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Ballard | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lorent Tolaj | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Scott Twine | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ben House | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Freddie Draper | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Reeco Hackett-Fairchild | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yu Hirakawa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Scott Twine | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dom Jefferies | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ivan Varfolomeev | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Freddie Draper | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jed Wallace | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yu Hirakawa | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Conor McGrandles | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 22% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bristol City 1–3 Lincoln City Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Lincoln City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Lincoln City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Scott Twine at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.