Bristol City v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bristol City beat Sunderland 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Wilson Isidor for 1+ shots total (78%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Nahki Wells for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nahki Wells | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ross McCrorie | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Williams | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Watson | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nahki Wells | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leo Fuhr Hjelde | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yu Hirakawa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Pring | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Watson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Earthy | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Pring | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 44% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sunderland 1–1 Bristol City Dec 2024
- Sunderland 0–0 Bristol City Apr 2024
- Bristol City 1–0 Sunderland Dec 2023
- Sunderland 1–1 Bristol City Feb 2023
- Bristol City 2–3 Sunderland Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Sunderland?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Sunderland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nahki Wells at 85% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.