Coventry City v Queens Park Rangers
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Coventry City beat Queens Park Rangers 7–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Paul Smyth for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ephron Mason-Clark for 1+ fouls drawn (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Smyth | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karamoko Dembélé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Haji Wright | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 5 | ✓ |
| Rayan Kolli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rayan Kolli | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Richard Kone | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Rudoni | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Raphael Rodrigues | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Torp | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Varane | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kaine Kesler-Hayden | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 8 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Coventry City Jan 2026
- Coventry City 1–0 Queens Park Rangers Feb 2025
- Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Coventry City Oct 2024
- Coventry City 1–2 Queens Park Rangers May 2024
- Queens Park Rangers 1–3 Coventry City Sep 2023
- Queens Park Rangers 0–3 Coventry City Apr 2023
- Coventry City 2–0 Queens Park Rangers Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Coventry City v Queens Park Rangers?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Coventry City v Queens Park Rangers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ephron Mason-Clark at 75% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.