Derby County v Cardiff City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Derby County drew with Cardiff City 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Yousef Salech for 1+ shots total (92%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Lewis Travis for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Travis | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yousef Salech | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Corey Blackett-Taylor | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rhian Brewster | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ollie Tanner | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ollie Tanner | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Chris Willock | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Perry Ng | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Perry Ng | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alex Robertson | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hedges | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewis Travis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 47% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cardiff City 2–1 Derby County Jan 2025
- Derby County 1–0 Cardiff City Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Derby County v Cardiff City?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Derby County v Cardiff City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lewis Travis at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.