Hull City v Birmingham City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hull City drew with Birmingham City 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Mohamed Belloumi for 1+ shots total (81%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Matt Crooks for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crooks | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Belloumi | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marvin Ducksch | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ethan Laird | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Demarai Gray | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Carlos Vicente | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jay Stansfield | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| August Priske | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Liam Millar | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| August Priske | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Osman | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 53% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 8 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Birmingham City 2–3 Hull City Oct 2025
- Hull City 1–1 Birmingham City Mar 2024
- Birmingham City 0–2 Hull City Oct 2023
- Birmingham City 0–1 Hull City Dec 2022
- Hull City 0–2 Birmingham City Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hull City v Birmingham City?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hull City v Birmingham City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Matt Crooks at 85% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.