Hull City v Charlton Athletic
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hull City drew with Charlton Athletic 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Matt Crooks for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Miles Leaburn for 1+ shots total (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crooks | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kyle Joseph | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miles Leaburn | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sonny Carey | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tyreece Campbell | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Kyle Joseph | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Greg Docherty | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luke Berry | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luke Berry | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Robert Apter | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charlie Kelman | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Charlie Kelman | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 14% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Charlton Athletic 2–1 Hull City Apr 2026
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hull City v Charlton Athletic?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hull City v Charlton Athletic?
The most confident call it got wrong was Miles Leaburn at 80% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.