Hull City v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hull City beat Southampton 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Shea Charles for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Finn Azaz for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Shea Charles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cameron Archer | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Damion Downs | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Belloumi | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Akintola | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kyle Joseph | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shea Charles | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Manning | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 52% | 8 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 1–2 Hull City Jan 2026
- Southampton 1–2 Hull City Feb 2024
- Hull City 1–2 Southampton Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hull City v Southampton?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hull City v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Finn Azaz at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.