Ipswich v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ipswich drew with Southampton 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Shea Charles for 1+ fouls drawn (85%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ben Johnson for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Charles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ben Johnson | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| George Hirst | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Flynn Downes | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ryan Manning | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mateus Fernandes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jack Taylor | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sammie Szmodics | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jay Robinson | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jay Robinson | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 57% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 2–2 Ipswich Apr 2026
- Ipswich 1–2 Southampton Feb 2025
- Southampton 1–1 Ipswich Sep 2024
- Ipswich 3–2 Southampton Apr 2024
- Southampton 0–1 Ipswich Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ipswich v Southampton?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ipswich v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ben Johnson at 83% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.