Leeds v Plymouth Argyle
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leeds beat Plymouth Argyle 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Mateo Joseph for 1+ shots total (83%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Manor Solomon for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Joseph | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daniel James | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Manor Solomon | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mustapha Bundu | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andre Gray | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Firpo | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adam Forshaw | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 63% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 40% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Plymouth Argyle 1–2 Leeds May 2025
- Plymouth Argyle 0–2 Leeds Feb 2024
- Leeds 2–1 Plymouth Argyle Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leeds v Plymouth Argyle?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leeds v Plymouth Argyle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Manor Solomon at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.