Leicester v Hull City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leicester drew with Hull City 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Matt Crooks for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Bobby De Cordova-Reid for 1+ shots total (68%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Crooks | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Koumas | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Belloumi | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patson Daka | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Divine Mukasa | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 4 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Millar | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan James | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bobby De Cordova-Reid | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan James | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 59% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hull City 2–1 Leicester Oct 2025
- Hull City 2–2 Leicester Mar 2024
- Leicester 0–1 Hull City Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leicester v Hull City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leicester v Hull City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Bobby De Cordova-Reid at 68% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.