Lincoln City v Blackburn Rovers
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Lincoln City drew with Blackburn Rovers 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Todd Cantwell for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jayden Fevrier for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Cantwell | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jayden Fevrier | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oladapo Afolayan | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryoya Morishita | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andri Guðjohnsen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robert Street | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Freddie Draper | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oladapo Afolayan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Todd Cantwell | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivan Varfolomeev | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Conor McGrandles | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dom Jefferies | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Freddie Draper | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tanto Olaofe | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 17% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Lincoln City v Blackburn Rovers?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Lincoln City v Blackburn Rovers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jayden Fevrier at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.