Luton v Hull City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton beat Hull City 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Cody Drameh for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jacob Brown for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Drameh | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Krauß | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marvelous Nakamba | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Liam Walsh | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Reece Burke | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewie Coyle | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lewie Coyle | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Xavier Simons | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ryan Longman | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gustavo Puerta | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdülkadir Ömür | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 37% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hull City 0–1 Luton Mar 2025
- Luton 0–0 Hull City May 2023
- Hull City 0–2 Luton Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Hull City?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Hull City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jacob Brown at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.