Luton v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton drew with Preston North End 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Jacob Brown for 1+ fouls drawn (85%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Milutin Osmajić for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Brown | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ryan Ledson | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Milutin Osmajić | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mads Frøkjær | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Will Keane | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isaiah Jones | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jacob Brown | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ali McCann | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Krauß | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 0 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 1–0 Luton Aug 2024
- Preston North End 1–1 Luton Feb 2023
- Luton 0–1 Preston North End Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Preston North End?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Milutin Osmajić at 82% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.