Luton v Queens Park Rangers
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton lost to Queens Park Rangers 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Karamoko Dembélé for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Tahith Chong for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Smyth | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Karamoko Dembélé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Field | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alfie Lloyd | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michael Frey | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jack Colback | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Karamoko Dembélé | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Frey | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 52% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 38% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 32% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Queens Park Rangers 2–1 Luton Jan 2025
- Queens Park Rangers 0–3 Luton Dec 2022
- Luton 3–1 Queens Park Rangers Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Queens Park Rangers?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Queens Park Rangers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tahith Chong at 87% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.