Queens Park Rangers v Luton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Queens Park Rangers beat Luton 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Harrison Ashby for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Varane | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Koki Saito | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Harrison Ashby | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marvelous Nakamba | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilias Chair | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alfie Lloyd | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Koki Saito | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tahith Chong | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Paul Smyth | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jimmy Dunne | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Field | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Liam Walsh | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kenneth Paal | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlton Morris | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 32% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Luton 1–2 Queens Park Rangers Aug 2024
- Queens Park Rangers 1–1 Luton Aug 2024
- Queens Park Rangers 0–3 Luton Dec 2022
- Luton 3–1 Queens Park Rangers Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Queens Park Rangers v Luton?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Queens Park Rangers v Luton?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.