Middlesbrough v Millwall
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Middlesbrough drew with Millwall 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Aidan Morris for 1+ tackles (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Tommy Conway for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Morris | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Riley McGree | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tommy Conway | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tommy Conway | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aidan Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derek Mazou-Sacko | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jenson Metcalfe | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lyndon Dykes | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jeremy Sarmiento | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lyndon Dykes | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tairyk Arconte | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Zak Sturge | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Middlesbrough 1–2 Millwall Apr 2026
- Millwall 0–3 Middlesbrough Aug 2025
- Millwall 1–0 Middlesbrough Apr 2025
- Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall Dec 2024
- Millwall 1–3 Middlesbrough Jan 2024
- Middlesbrough 0–1 Millwall Aug 2023
- Middlesbrough 1–0 Millwall Jan 2023
- Millwall 2–0 Middlesbrough Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Middlesbrough v Millwall?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Middlesbrough v Millwall?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tommy Conway at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.